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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
US real estate markets are showing signs of recovery, with interest rates stabilizing and competition for quality investments increasing. Despite a challenging office sector, overall transaction volume is expected to grow, supported by positive net operating income across most sectors. The recent election results may further boost the sector, with anticipated lower taxes and regulations offsetting potential inflationary pressures.
The Asia Pacific economy is projected to grow 3.9% in 2024 and 2025, despite a gradual slowdown and potential risks from geopolitical shifts, particularly a looming US tariff threat on China. While leasing activity showed mixed results, with stable retail performance and rising vacancy rates in logistics, capital markets are beginning to recover, particularly in Australia and South Korea, despite a significant decline in Japan. Cap rates are stabilizing in most regions, signaling the potential end of the cap rate upcycle.
Switzerland's economy shows resilience amid global turbulence, with a projected growth of 1.4% for 2024, bolstered by the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors. Low inflation has allowed the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates, enhancing investor sentiment in real estate, where demand for rental apartments remains high despite a slight dip in net immigration. The vacancy rate has decreased to 1.08%, driving rents up by 6.4% in Q2 2024, while the commercial real estate market faces challenges from hybrid work models and online shopping trends.
Europe's real estate market is entering a new investment cycle, buoyed by improving inflation and interest rates, with Spain expected to outperform while Germany faces structural challenges. Investment volumes are rising selectively, particularly in Poland and Italy, while high-quality office spaces are in demand despite overall lower occupancy rates. Prime office rents have increased by 8.2% annually, reflecting a relative shortage of quality properties.
Moody's has revised ratings for major Hungarian banks, upgrading Raiffeisen Bank's Baseline Credit Assessment to 'baa3' due to improved financial performance. K&H Bank's rating was affirmed at 'ba1', while the Hungarian Development Bank's rating remains 'Baa2', reflecting state support. However, a negative outlook was assigned to the long-term deposit ratings of Erste, K&H, Raiffeisen, and MFB, citing concerns over Hungary's economic outlook.
Investors who purchased Raiffeisen shares three years ago at a closing price of EUR 25.70 would now see their investment of EUR 100 reduced to EUR 75.18, reflecting a decline of 24.82%. As of December 5, 2024, the share price stands at EUR 19.32, with the company's market capitalization at EUR 6.35 billion.
Billionaires' wealth surged 121% over the past decade, reaching $14 trillion, with tech billionaires seeing the fastest growth. The number of billionaires rose from 1,757 to 2,682, while new billionaires in 2024 were predominantly self-made entrepreneurs. Despite a slowdown in growth since 2020, North American billionaires led gains, while wealth from China declined significantly.
SGKB has seen a 6.5% increase in corporate clients since the start of 2023, attributed partly to customers moving from larger banks. CEO Christian Schmid indicated that interest rates for savings accounts will depend on the SNB's upcoming assessment, with potential for lower rates and even negative interest rates being considered. The bank aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 50% of profit and remains committed to supporting the Olma trade fairs as a shareholder.
UBS is optimistic about gold in 2025, driven by lower interest rates, geopolitical risks, and strong dollar diversification trends, which are expected to boost both investor and central bank buying. Despite the current strength of the US dollar, UBS warns it may be overvalued and anticipates a shift towards a weaker dollar, potentially enhancing gold's appeal. Central banks are projected to maintain high gold purchases, supporting prices that could rise above $2,800 per ounce.
On December 6, Techcombank and VPBank adjusted their savings interest rates, with Techcombank offering up to 5.1%/year for high-end customers on longer terms, while VPBank's highest rate reached 5.7%/year for large deposits over 24 months. Both banks have implemented increases of approximately 0.2 percentage points to attract depositors amid rising capital needs and exchange rate pressures.
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